What Can I Beat?

I'm going to post a series of articles on topics that I do not see discussed very much. This one is a repost of a thread I made at Pokertips.org. I do not proclaim to be anywhere near the best and the ideas presented here are not in any way supposed to be the end-all-be-all. These are in the end, my opinion and designed to provoke discussion. Enjoy!

"What Can I Beat?"

I have been playing a lot of SH Limit Holdem over the last few months and when faced with hands that can only beat a bluff many times in a heads up pot, I have come to rely on the question "What Can I Beat?" Here is an example:

I have A7h. I raise and on of the blinds calls me (as they are very likely to do). The flop is 10h9c2s. I am checked raised be a player who I know will play his draws aggresively, so I want to call him down, but I don't want to raise just in case he wakes up with a real hand or decides to keep on raising, putting me to a tough decision. So before I proceed, I go through and mark off the cards on the turn that I will fold to. Here, I will fold to a QJ87 and maybe a K or a 6. All of these cards either pairs him or completes his draw.

The turn is a 9d. If I was ahead, then I still am ahead. He bets and I call. The river is a blank. If he still bets, I will evaluate the hand once more and if I think I have a 7-1 shot in winning, I will probably call. This once again depends on how I have seen his play in the past. If he checks his busted draws and bets his made hands, then I am going to fold. If he bets the entire way whether he misses or hits, then I am going to bet.

Here is another example where a guy could've saved himself a bet. This is a hand I just played, actually.

I have Q10o in a 4 handed game in the BB. UTG/CO raises and I call. I check raise on a J8x flop with two diamonds. He calls. I bet the blank on the turn, he calls. The river is a 10d. I throw in a value bet, capable of folding if he raises. He calls with A9o. He should've asked himself here: What Can I Beat? Every hand that I could possibly have made it there unless I was on a stone cold bluff (which I would never bluff that river...ok I sometimes would) He could've saved himself a bet and fought another day. If you really want to know the stakes, I'll post them later, but there are showdown muppets at every level.

I think that the key to Limit Holdem is critical thinking because so much info is thrown out there (more than I think in NL) that you can save yourself some money (and thereby make yourself some money) by saving bets or raising with marginal hands where appropriate. Keep on asking yourself questions in a hand and you can come up with the best course of action.