Insaneo Headsup
So I return to my apartment from my friends' place and I decide to see what's going on at Full Tilt. Look at the Stud window, the 2/4 game is full. Check the Headsup SnG, nothing really going on. And then I go check the Holdem window. 2/4 Holdem is a bit high variance for me to be playing right now, so I look at the 1/2. And I see this guy with 3 tables open, obviously looking for headsup action. I was tempted and I saw that he was playing against this guy at one of the tables. So take a gander at this guy.
Now this guy's name is 100KorBust. Sounds like someone who is determined and maybe a bit too agressive (Anyone with a big goal likes to get there as quickly as possible). I watch and this guy is very aggressive and he's raising every hand he can and calling down if he connects with ANYTHING. So I sit down.
Now I prefer 3 handed action with a maniac to headsup because maniacs are high variance and when I feel I have the best hand, I can knock the other guy out for the dead money. Essentially, unless the 3rd guy is a maniac or a very good player, he just sweetens the pot and lessens my variance. After a bit, 100K sits out, this guy leaves and I beat up on a 4th guy who showed up for 2 hands. I end up being down $3.
So I see 100K sitting at these other tables. I know he's a juicy player, but headsup is so much variance that I don't want to slug it out against him. I decide to sit down with $30 and either lose it or double up. Here are some choice hands against him.
Seat 2: XA_kid ($27.25)
Seat 6: 100K or BUST ($99)
XA_kid posts the small blind of $0.50
100K or BUST posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to XA_kid [5s 4d]
Fresh Fly sits down
XA_kid raises to $2
100K or BUST calls $1
*** FLOP *** [2d 3s 6s]
100K or BUST bets $1
XA_kid raises to $2
100K or BUST raises to $3
XA_kid calls $1
*** TURN *** [2d 3s 6s] [Th]
100K or BUST bets $2
XA_kid raises to $4
100K or BUST calls $2
*** RIVER *** [2d 3s 6s Th] [9c]
100K or BUST checks
XA_kid bets $2
100K or BUST calls $2
*** SHOW DOWN ***
XA_kid shows [5s 4d] (a straight, Six high)
100K or BUST shows [5h 2s] (a pair of Twos)
XA_kid wins the pot ($21.50) with a straight, Six high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $22 | Rake $0.50
Board: [2d 3s 6s Th 9c]
Seat 2: XA_kid (small blind) showed [5s 4d] and won ($21.50) with a straight, Six high
Seat 6: 100K or BUST (big blind) showed [5h 2s] and lost with a pair of Twos
FullTiltPoker Game #891604276: Table Serafina - $1/$2 - Limit Hold'em - 1:57:55 ET - 2006/08/13
Seat 2: XA_kid ($48.50)
Seat 6: 100K or BUST ($55.50)
Seat 9: Banjo_K ($100), is sitting out
XA_kid has 5 seconds left to act
XA_kid posts the small blind of $0.50
100K or BUST posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to XA_kid [4d Jc]
XA_kid raises to $2
100K or BUST raises to $3
XA_kid calls $1
*** FLOP *** [3s 5d Ac]
100K or BUST bets $1
XA_kid calls $1
*** TURN *** [3s 5d Ac] [7c]
100K or BUST bets $2
XA_kid calls $2
*** RIVER *** [3s 5d Ac 7c] [3h]
100K or BUST bets $2
XA_kid calls $2
*** SHOW DOWN ***
100K or BUST shows [8s 2s] (a pair of Threes)
XA_kid shows [4d Jc] (a pair of Threes)
XA_kid wins the pot ($15.50) with a pair of Threes
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $16 | Rake $0.50
Board: [3s 5d Ac 7c 3h]
Seat 2: XA_kid (small blind) showed [4d Jc] and won ($15.50) with a pair of Threes
Seat 6: 100K or BUST (big blind) showed [8s 2s] and lost with a pair of Threes
Seat 9: Banjo_K is sitting out
That's right, I called down with Jack High. I thought about raising him on the turn since I had position, had the draw, and I was calling down anyways, but I didn't want him to 3-bet me. At the river I was 75% sure I had the best hand.
I made it to $62 in 36 hands and called it quits. Another guy had sat down in the middle of our match and he beat 100K for $20 bucks and then left. I wanted to play more and I knew I had an edge, but his style could result in a big come back and negative variance for me. Normally I advocate staying in a game as long as it was good and if we were 3-handed I would, but I set myself a limit and stuck to it. If my bankroll was a bit healthier I would have definently tried to bust him. Also at that point I had him outchipped $60-$40 and therefore I had more to lose than him. Not a great decision to set a stop-win, but it felt right for this situation.
A good day overall for. The only disapointing thing was that I was playing in a 18 Man SnG, make it 3 way with about even stacks and this donkey decides to push all-in against my flopped 2 pair with the flush draw. He hits, becomes the monster stack, and I'm out in 3rd. Still, if tomorrow goes as well as today, then it will be a nice weekend for me.
posted by Ben D @ 11:06 PM
5 Comments:
I've seen this a couple times in your hand histories, and its puzzled me a bit.
You say you are 75% sure your Jack high is good. If he's hyper aggressive, as it seems he is, what doesn't he bet with on that flop, turn, and river? KK? 66? 67? K2? 22? KQ?
It just seems like almost every single hand is a possibility. Just curious how you come to the conclusion at 75%.
-Notjitsu
He was betting every hand this way. In earlier hands when I had middle pair, he had hands like 9 high. My decision to continue with the hand was that I had outs for the straight which made it easy to continue to the river and the river pairing made me confident that I was probably ahead. The 75% is sort of a number I pulled out of my ass, but it's based on his play and the board. The 3 pairing made it less likely that he hit that board and his play made me feel that a good part of the time jack high is good. At the river I'm getting 6-1 on my call and against this guy, Jack is good greater than 6-1 of the time.
Cool beans, I wasn't questioning the call, just wondering where the 75% came from as that seemed absurdly high even if you put him on any hand.
I think the 75% number may show that you are overestimating the advantage you had though. I didn't do the math, but him having 2 non-paired cards less than j6 not including a 3, 5, or 7, and not 24 or 46. I lack the effort to get the answer to what that is, but I'd say its a lot closer to 25% than 75%.
-Notjitsu
I did it out. 37% of the time you are ahead vs. a random hand on that river.
Still certainly good enough to call if he's playing all his hands that way. This is what I like about your play, it makes me do things like this. I would have underestimated J6 by about 10-20% there.
You certainly do push the edges very well.
-notitsu
Well thanks for doing the math. When I usually use numbers, I do the math behind it, but when I am putting people on a hand, I usually just make them for what "feels" right.
Look at my analysis of the "Flopped Flush Hand" in the NL section at PT. There's a good example where I am just making numbers up.
My plan for the hand was since I had the draw, I was going to call all the way down because I am getting odds to go to the river and at the river I am getting the odds to beat a less than J-high bluff so I called. I very rarely make calls like that but against this guy (like you showed) it was correct.
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