The XA Kid's Poker Journal

A blog about Life, the Universe, and Everything Poker

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

ALWAYS DRAW FOR THE GUTSHOT.

NOTE: This is my 2nd "article" for my blog. I am going to start posting links for past articles. The last one is entitled "What Can I Beat?" if you want to search for it.

In Limit Holdem, there is a maxim that some people take to heart: Never draw to a gutshot straight, that is, a straight in which you can only hit one card to make. But you know what I do? I ALWAYS draw for the gutshot. Sure I am a 10-1 underdog, but the look on a person's face is priceless. Or in the case of online poker, the chat box. I get called a fish at least ONCE a day and usually many times.

You might be thinking now how can a winning player draw for such longshots? It's easy: implied odds. Let's say that you have KJo in the big blind. A late position person raises and the Small Blind calls and you do as well. The flop comes:

7c Ah Qd

Well, you can assume that your are in no way ahead of raiser unless he was getting real frisky. ~SB checks, you check and the raiser bets and the ~SB folds. There are 7 bets in the pot and you have a 10-1 shot. What do you do? I call. The turn is a beautiful 10. Do you bet? No, you check and then go for the raise. Who is going to see the gutshot coming? The low blow will faze them so much that they will have no choice but to call down. And you pick up a pot with 20 small bets in it. That's twice as much as the 10 you needed to make the call in the first place!

By now, the concept of implied odds should be fairly clear: it is the amount of money you can expect to win on later streets if you hit versus how much you need to put in. Some people in limit holdem play so tight that they lose on profitable opportunities like this. Of course, some people play so loose that even with implied odds, they aren't getting the right shot. A good player needs to be always watchful for profitable opportunities and sometimes that requires playing tight and other times looser.

A little addendum: your implied odds are always dictated by how obvious it will be that you hit your hand. KJ on the above board is not as obvious as KJ chasing on a 789 flop. You want to be drawing to a not so obvious powerful hand and you have to put you opponent on a hand that will pay you off big time. If you think your opponent is weak, then try to take the pot through aggressiveness than through just hitting your hand. It is always easier to just pick up the pot than to hit a miracle.

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