The XA Kid's Poker Journal

A blog about Life, the Universe, and Everything Poker

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

I Am a Luckbox Part II

It is official. I am a luckbox. I have been going over my Poker Tracker stats (y'know, the program that I use to keep track of my...poker) and based on what I've read on poker forums, I have been running hot this year.

My NL rate over the 10K hands I've played this year is 16.69 Big Blinds/100 though that does include Short Handed and Long Handed.

My Limit rate over 17K hands is a bit more in line with 3.5 Big Bets/100, once again including SH and LH. For those laymen (or laywomen. Hi Mom!) a Big Bet is twice the Big Blind.

This of course doesn't include the Omaha that I've played nor the Stud. I should probably get Poker Tracker for each of those games, but I am in no hurry as I save all of my hand histories and can import those games at anytime.

Now people are going to come in and say that 10K is not statistically significant and that I need 50K or 100K hands to find my "True Win Rate" or to see if I am a "Real Winning Player".

To those people, I say Fuck Off.

Yes, I realize that against the average I am running well, especially at the stakes that I play. However, I think that I only need 5K hands to see if I am a winning player and I expect those number above will fluctuate. I have had some really bad days with some major numbers in the red (I have a 1 hour session where I was at -66 BB/100 at 30/60. Ouch.) But running bad or good can really only last for so long before, overall, I am catching an average amount of cards. I think that I am playing my cards very well and my above average winrate has to do more with the fact that I am playing so much better than I was when I started 2 years ago and even better than I was in January.

I maybe be a very lucky man, but you want to know why? Because I feel lucky. I am lucky to have a game that is a fierce competitor at the stakes I play. I am lucky to have a family that supports me and that I support in return (I have some cool graduation gift ideas for my brother who finishes High School in a few weeks). I am lucky to have a great set of friends with whom I can share my success in. Hell, I am lucky to be alive.

Sure my life isn't prefect, but I wouldn't have it any other way. Without struggles, how can I improve as player and as a person? The truth is that I make my own luck and with a positive perspective comes positive results.

1 Comments:

At 6:07 AM, Blogger Manuel Salgado said...

You may be running hot, but I think the fact that you only focus on one game at a time and that you play at limits where you have built up a familliarity (sp?) with many of your opponents is a factor in your winrate as well.

You may be running a bit hot, but from what I can tell - from very limited information - you are at the least a winning player.

 

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